With tightening restrictions almost all over the UK we could presume, what will be the total effect on the economy, based on the statistics of GDP in Mar-Jun 2020.
1.UK GDP fell by 20.4% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020
2.GDP fell significantly in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020 with widespread contractions across all main sectors of the economy
3.GDP grew by 8.7% in June 2020
4.The services sector fell by 19.9% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020
5.Production fell by 16.9% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020
6.Output in the construction sector fell by 35.0% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2020
"Coronavirus (COVID-19)
This release captures the direct effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the government measures taken to reduce transmission of the virus. We have faced an increased number of challenges in producing monthly and quarterly estimates of UK gross domestic product (GDP) for June. More detailed information on the challenges and the steps taken to mitigate those can be found in Coronavirus and the effects on UK GDP."
Source: ONS
Lets have a look at the picture below: This is the breakdown of GDP and its sub-sectors, rolling three-month growth rates and contributions to growth, April to June 2020
The figure above shows the negative contribution of mostly all sub-sectors to GDP in a rolling three-month period from March to Jun.
We have witnessed a 8.7% GDP growth after the overall lockdown was eased in June.
The economy started to recover and mostly all online businesses have 80% sales vs 2019 in absolute figures.
Following the updated Tier1-Tier3 proposed zones of localized pandemic its hard to predict, how the GDP will be in the next three month, following the possibility of default in CBILS and BBILS loans and more supporting schemes available to the public, but with the higher margin of debt and no operational income on hand.
What do you think we could expect in the nearest future?
Please share your thought
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